XRP delivered one of its strongest daily performances of the year on August 21, 2026, surging 14.21% to around $1.40. The move made XRP the best-performing cryptocurrency among the top 10 assets by market capitalization, outperforming Bitcoin, which gained 7.44%, and Ethereum, which rose 4.50%.
The sharp rally also produced an important technical development. XRP closed its daily candle above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) for the first time since the death cross formed earlier this month. While this is a meaningful improvement in XRP’s technical structure, it does not mean that the death cross has already been reversed or that a golden cross has formed.
XRP Reclaims the 50-Day and 200-Day EMAs
The most important feature of XRP’s latest move was the daily close above both major moving averages. XRP opened the session around $1.2681, climbed as high as $1.43, and finished near $1.40.
This move broke through a resistance zone that had rejected several previous recovery attempts. However, traders should distinguish between price moving above the moving averages and the moving averages themselves changing their relationship.
A death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. XRP’s 50-day EMA remains below its 200-day EMA, meaning the bearish structure technically remains intact.
For a genuine golden cross to develop, the 50-day EMA must eventually move above the 200-day EMA. That generally requires sustained strength over multiple sessions or weeks. Therefore, Thursday’s rally should be viewed as the first major step toward a potential trend reversal, rather than confirmation that the reversal has already occurred.
The Bitcoin Short Squeeze Played a Major Role
Another important factor is that XRP’s rally did not happen independently.
The broader cryptocurrency market experienced a powerful short squeeze during the week. Bitcoin pushed above $72,000 and moved toward $79,000, forcing bearish traders to close short positions as prices moved against them.
More than $3 billion in short positions were reportedly liquidated across the crypto market during the period. Forced buying from these liquidations helped accelerate the rally across major cryptocurrencies, including XRP.
This means part of XRP’s recent strength can be described as market beta rather than XRP-specific demand. The correlation between XRP and Bitcoin was particularly strong during the move, suggesting that the broader crypto rally was an important catalyst.
The key question now is what happens after the short squeeze loses momentum.
If Bitcoin remains strong and attracts fresh spot buyers, XRP could continue building on its breakout. But if Bitcoin loses its recent support and the broader market begins to consolidate, XRP could quickly return below its moving averages.
History Shows XRP Breakouts Can Fail
XRP has experienced similar technical recoveries before.
Since 2021, there have been multiple occasions when XRP reclaimed both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages but failed to maintain the breakout.
In September 2021, XRP moved above both averages following improving sentiment around the SEC lawsuit. The breakout lasted roughly 11 trading sessions before XRP fell back below the 200-day average.
Another example occurred in March 2024, when XRP benefited from a broad cryptocurrency rally as Bitcoin moved toward new highs. XRP stayed above the major moving averages for only several sessions before momentum weakened.
In January 2025, XRP again briefly reclaimed both averages following positive partnership-related news. The move lasted only a few days before broader market weakness pushed the token lower.
These historical examples highlight an important lesson: reclaiming moving averages is not enough by itself.
A sustainable breakout requires follow-through, strong trading volume, and continued demand after the initial catalyst disappears.
Trading Volume and Geographic Concentration Matter
Another factor traders should monitor is where XRP’s spot trading activity is coming from.
Recent XRP spot volume has been heavily concentrated on major exchanges such as Binance and Upbit. South Korean won-denominated XRP pairs have also represented a significant portion of overall trading activity.
Strong activity from a particular region can provide powerful short-term momentum, but it can also create additional risk if the buying pressure becomes geographically concentrated.
For XRP to establish a stronger long-term trend, the rally would ideally need to broaden across multiple exchanges and regions rather than relying heavily on a small group of markets.
What XRP Needs to Confirm a Real Trend Reversal
For the current bullish setup to become more convincing, XRP needs to accomplish several things.
First, the price should remain above both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs on subsequent daily closes. A quick move back below these averages would weaken the breakout considerably.
Second, XRP needs sustained spot demand. If trading volume falls sharply after the initial rally, the move could prove to be another temporary breakout.
Third, Bitcoin needs to remain stable or continue higher. XRP has shown strong sensitivity to Bitcoin’s direction, meaning a major BTC reversal could put pressure on the XRP breakout.
Finally, the 50-day EMA needs to turn upward and eventually cross above the 200-day EMA. That would provide stronger confirmation that the previous bearish trend has transitioned into a bullish structure.
XRP’s Next Move Could Be Crucial
The latest XRP rally is certainly significant, but calling it a confirmed golden cross would be premature.
What the chart currently shows is a strong recovery in price and a successful daily close above two important moving averages. The 50-day EMA, however, remains below the 200-day EMA, so the death-cross structure has not technically disappeared yet.
The biggest challenge for XRP will be proving that its latest move is supported by genuine demand rather than temporary short covering.
If XRP can hold above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, maintain strong spot volume and continue attracting buyers while Bitcoin remains firm, the probability of a broader trend reversal could increase.
On the other hand, a rejection from the current levels followed by a close back below the 200-day EMA would suggest that Thursday’s breakout was another failed recovery attempt.
For now, XRP has taken an important first step—but the market still needs to provide confirmation.
The death cross has not officially become a golden cross yet. The next few daily candles could determine whether XRP’s latest breakout becomes the beginning of a new trend or simply another temporary rally.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and traders should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
