Iran has proposed a seven-day plan aimed at ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and paving the way for comprehensive nuclear negotiations with the United States. The proposal could have important implications for global energy markets and risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, if it leads to a sustained reduction in geopolitical tensions.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Thursday that Tehran had presented Washington with a plan through intermediaries. Under the proposal, hostilities would stop first, followed by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and broader negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.
The proposal reportedly includes several conditions. These include an end to hostilities, including in Lebanon, the release of at least $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets, sanctions waivers for Iranian oil exports and the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade. If those conditions are met, Iran would reopen the strategic waterway at the end of the seven-day period.
Araghchi said Iran was prepared to begin implementing the proposal once Washington agreed. A U.S. official familiar with the discussions described the negotiations through intermediaries as positive and constructive, although Washington was reportedly not prepared to rush into an agreement.
Hormuz Reopening Could Pressure Oil Prices Lower
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy routes, making developments surrounding the waterway highly relevant for global markets.
Markets have already reacted to signs that the strait could reopen. WTI crude fell more than 2.5% to around $89 per barrel on Sept. 22 after Iran indicated that Hormuz could reopen within a week. Brent crude also moved below $98 during the same period.
Lower oil prices could reduce some of the inflationary pressure affecting global markets. For Bitcoin and other risk assets, this could become important because higher energy prices can contribute to persistent inflation and potentially encourage central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policies.
A lasting reduction in oil prices could therefore provide some relief to markets already dealing with elevated Treasury yields.
Bitcoin Remains Near $84,000
Bitcoin has experienced a volatile period as traders assess geopolitical developments, oil prices and U.S. monetary policy.
The largest cryptocurrency reached around $87,392 earlier in the week before pulling back toward the $84,000 area. Bitcoin was trading close to $86,000 when oil prices reacted to the possibility of a Hormuz reopening.
The current technical picture remains important. Bitcoin faces resistance around the $86,700 to $87,400 area. A sustained move above this region could put the recent high back into focus, while failure to break through resistance could keep the cryptocurrency range-bound.
Despite the macroeconomic pressure, demand from institutional investors has remained notable. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $2.65 billion in net inflows over five sessions through Sept. 23.
On Sept. 23 alone, Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $346.98 million in net inflows. That followed nearly $999 million on Sept. 21 and approximately $714.7 million on Sept. 22.
On-chain activity has also shown signs of accumulation. Wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC accumulated approximately 113,950 BTC between July 15 and Sept. 23.
Ethereum Also Watches the $2,700 Level
Ethereum has followed Bitcoin’s broader recovery but has struggled to maintain momentum above the $2,700 region.
ETH recently reached approximately $2,789 before retreating toward the $2,600 area. The cryptocurrency would need to reclaim $2,700 before another attempt at its recent $2,789 high becomes technically relevant.
Ethereum has also received support from institutional flows. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded approximately $162.2 million in inflows on Sept. 22, followed by another $105 million during the next session.
The token has remained above its longer-term four-hour moving averages, including the 50, 100 and 200-period averages, despite losing the shorter 20-period average during the pullback.
Hormuz Negotiations Have Failed Before
While the latest proposal has attracted market attention, traders have seen similar attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz fail previously.
Washington and Tehran reached a 14-point memorandum of understanding in June that called for an end to the war and allowed commercial vessels to resume using the waterway. Iran was expected to facilitate safe passage for 60 days while both sides worked toward a final agreement.
However, disagreements quickly emerged over control of the strait. Tehran viewed the arrangement as recognizing its authority to manage traffic through Hormuz, while Washington and Gulf states maintained that commercial vessels should have unrestricted access without Iranian control.
By July, tensions had returned. Iran fired on vessels it said were using an unauthorized route and declared the strait closed again. Washington subsequently revoked a license allowing Iranian oil sales, while Tehran accused the U.S. of violating the earlier memorandum.
The history of previous negotiations means markets may remain cautious until a new agreement produces a sustained reopening rather than another temporary arrangement.
What It Could Mean for Crypto
A durable reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could affect Bitcoin and Ethereum through several interconnected channels.
Lower oil prices could reduce inflation concerns, while easing geopolitical risks could improve sentiment toward risk assets. At the same time, lower energy costs could potentially reduce pressure on Treasury yields if markets begin to price a softer inflation outlook.
However, crypto markets remain exposed to U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points on Sept. 16 to a range of 3.75% to 4%, while inflation remained a concern.
The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.11% on Sept. 24, while the 30-year yield moved to 5.40%. These elevated yields continue to represent a significant macroeconomic factor for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
For now, traders will likely continue watching the Iran-U.S. negotiations, oil prices, Treasury yields, ETF flows and key technical levels. A successful and lasting reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could remove one source of market pressure, but the outcome of the negotiations remains uncertain.
Tags: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Crypto Market, Bitcoin Price, Ethereum Price, Oil Prices, Federal Reserve, Treasury Yields, Crypto News, Geopolitics
